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HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services. - Страница 9

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Date : 25th January 2023.

Market Update – January 25 – Asian markets return to hot AUD & NZD Inflation.



Many Asian markets back (China & Taiwan remain closed all week) and higher today, NYSE suffered tech meltdown (250+ stocks paused trading on Open) US Stocks mixed following a raft of uninspiring Earnings. #MSFT had its weakest quarterly sales growth in 6-yrs but EPS beat. -0.22% on the day & -1.02% after hours. PMI data from EZ & US weak, but better than expected, UK data weak & missed. USDIndex recovered 102.00, EUR close to 9-mth highs. Hot CPI (8.4% & 32-yr high vs 7.6%) in AUD on bid & it lifts the outlook for hikes from RBA 7/2. AUD over 0.7100 close to 6-mth highs, NZD CPI also hotter than expected. Gold $1930, USOIL holds $80.00, BTC $22.7k.

  • The USD Index rallied to 102.20, on Tuesday, before PMI & Earnings weighed and it trades at 101.60 today.
  • EUR – holds over 1.0900 now, having tested below 1.0845 yesterday, following a new 9-mth high at 1.0925 on Monday.
  • JPY – Hit resistance at 131.00 and support at 130.00 yesterday, back to 130.40 now.
  • GBP – Sterling hit 1.2260 and 5-day lows following the weak PMI data, a revision of ONS data that showed UK to be the 2nd slowest growing of the G7 nations and record Government borrowing in December. (
  • Stocks – The US markets traded very mixed yesterday amid concerns over Earnings (-0.27% to +0.96%). US500 -0.07%, (-2.86) 4016 band holds the key 4000 level US500 FUTS trade at 4019. #MSFT had its weakest Q4 sales growth in 6-yrs but EPS beat, stock fell -0.22% on the day & -1.02% after hours.


  • USOil – topped at $82.58 on Monday and declined to test before inventories data showed a build of 8.4 million barrels (vs. an expected drawdown of 2.4 million barrels) and prices rallied to $81.50 and holds at $81.00 now.
  • Gold – has hit 9-mth highs today at $1935 again today and trades at $1930 now. The spectre of CB’s reluctant to talk pivot and season factors help the key commodity.
  • BTC – Continues to hold the $20k handle this week and is back to test $21k today.
Today – German Ifo, BOC Policy Announcement Earnings from ASML, AT&T, Tesla, Boeing, IBM & Abbott.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDNZD (+1.21%). Rallied from 1.0800 yesterday to trade at 1.0960 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 85.12, OB & stalling, H1 ATR 0.00205, Daily ATR 0.0070.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 26th January 2023.

Market Update – January 26 – BOC Pause, TESLA Beat, USD at Lows.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
HK markets reopened today and rallied +2.15%, other Asian markets were softer following a weak handover from Wall Street (opened -1.6% but recovered to close flat) Gold remains at 9-mth highs and USD at 8-mth lows. The Dovish 25bp hike from the BOC hit the CAD (USDCAD hit 1.3430 from 1.3340); – the key phrase the Bank – “expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of cumulative interest rate increases.” Speculation building that the BOC could even be raising rates before year end. #TSLA (+0.38%) Earnings beat (+5.5% after hours) record deliveries (with 1.8-2.0 possible 2023), magins held up & the 20% price cuts kicked-in. MUSK talked of deep recession and more cost cutting for year ahead. Gold $1940, USOIL over $80.00, BTC breaches $23k.

  • The USD Index has tested the 8-mth low at 101.25, today, trades at 101.40 now ahead of another busy economic data day .
  • EUR – holds over 1.0900 now, posting 9-mth highs at 1.0929 today, following 1.0925 on Monday.
  • JPY – Sank below support at 130.00 yesterday, and tested back to 129.00 today, before Japanese minister warning of not letting speculators dominate JPY movements.
  • GBP – Sterling has rallied over 1.2400 today to test 1.2410 resistance.
  • Stocks – The US markets closed flat (-0.18% to +0.03%) yesterday amid concerns over Earnings. US500 -0.02%, (-0.73) 4016 band holds the key 4000 level US500 FUTS trade firmer at 4042. IBM. AT&T both beat, whilst Boeing numbers were mixed. In Europe today Diageo and SAP have both posted strong beats, lifting European stocks (+0.60%) at open.


  • USOil – topped at $81.00 yesterday before dipping to $79.50 after inventories showed a 0.5 million barrel build compared to expectations of 1.2m after two weeks of huge builds. Trades at $80.40 now.
  • Gold – Tested into $1949 earlier today from $1922 support yesterday, and trades at $1940 now.
  • BTC – Continues to hold the $22k handle this week, spiking to $23.7K earlier today and holds $23k currently.
Today – US Durable Goods, GDP Advance/PCE Prices Advance (Q4), Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, Japanese CPI, SARB Policy Announcement, Earnings from Diageo (beat), STMicroelectronics, Nokia, SAP (beat) LVMH, Comcast, Intel & Visa.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.24%). Rallied from 0.8620 post BOC lows yesterday to test 0.8700 & trades at 0.8680now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 53.10 & stalling, H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0073.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 27th January 2023.

Market Update – January 27 – Strong US data = Soft Landing ?



The major US economic data yesterday (Q4 GDP lower; 3.9% from 4.2% but better than expected 3.6%, strong consumer spending, Durable goods, New Home Sales, Lower Inventories and Weekly Claims at new 22-mth lows) all added to the soft landing, disinflation, scenario for the US economy. A FOMC 25bp hike next week now has a 98% probability, up from 94% yesterday (2% for 50bp!). Stocks rallied, USD recovered and yields picked up from recent lows. Overnight – Asian stocks hit 8-mth highs and Core Inflation in Tokyo hit a 42yr high at 4.3%. European & UK FUTS also higher. #TESLA gained +10.97%.

  • The USD Index tested the 8-mth lows at 101.25, yesterday, rallied to test 102.00 following the data and trades back to 101.75 now.
  • EUR – sank below 1.0900 after posting 9-mth highs at 1.0929 and lows at 1.0855 yesterday before recovering to 1.0875 now.
  • JPY – Sank to test 129.00 yesterday, before rallying to 130.50, back to 129.50 following the CPI data and now up to 130.00.
  • GBP – Sterling has rallied over 1.2400 yesterday and again today but has struggled to hold the key resistance level. Back to 1.2370 now.
  • Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+0.61% to +1.76%) yesterday. US500 +1.10%, (+44) 4060, US500 FUTS trade firmer at 4062. TSLA +10.97%, CVX +4.86%, XOM +4.02% IBM -4.48%. Intel missed after hours -9.7%. In Europe today LVMH posted strong Earnings, lifting European FUTS further.


  • USOil – topped at $82.00 yesterday before dipping to $80.00. Trades at $81.40 now.
  • Gold – Tested into $1949 yesterday before breaching $1922 support, rallying to $1940 and now back to $1922.
  • BTC – Continues to hold the $22k handle this week, spiking to $23.7k yesterday, and holds $23k currently.
Today – US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Consumption, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.38%). Declined from a test of 161.75 on close last night as JPY outperformed in Asia, to test 160.70. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling. RSI 49.76 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.268, Daily ATR 1.808.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 30th January 2023.

Market Update – January 30 – Mega Central banks, OPEC, NFP & Earnings week.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky
China Stock market returns from Luna New Year break. Chinese stocks rose while most other Asian equities fell as investors looked to interest rate decisions scheduled this week in the US, UK and Europe and busy earnings agenda. Nikkei ended at a more than 1-month high today. Global Stocks excluding China are lower, USD steady and Yields picked up. European & UK FUTS also lower. The rout in India’s Adani Group is weighing on sentiment while the December income report showed cooling in income, a drop in spending, and deceleration in the annual measures of inflation, supporting the well-expected step down in the FOMC’s rate hikes to 25 bps on February 1.

“Markets could sell stocks to book profits ahead of the Fed meeting, NFP, & earnings?”

  • The USD Index – bouncing between 101.50-101.90.
  • EUR – sank below 1.0900 again.
  • JPY – sank to test 129.23 overnight but currently settled at 129.65.
  • GBP – stuck between 1.2340-1.2430.
  • Stocks – The US markets are lower after last week’s rally. US100 -0.95% at 12128, US500 traded at 4060 (-0.4%). AMEX & TSLA (+10.6% & 11.00%) leaders – INTEL & Chevron laggards (-6.4% & -4.4%). Of the 25% of the S&P that has reported so far, nearly half have beaten sales estimates, and over 70% have beaten earnings.
  • Tesla +11.00% (7.2 million contracts were exchanged on Friday, according to Cboe Global Markets data, breaking the previous record of 5.2 million contracts set earlier this month and accounting for nearly 13% of all options trading) – its best week since 2013. Cashed out $175 million just on Friday.



  • USOil – jumped on the open but quick pullback below $80.00, alongside other raw materials including copper, with losses in oil also coming despite an Israeli drone strike against a target in Iran over the weekend, according to Wall Street.
  • Gold – Tested$1934 in themorning before turning to $1925 support.
  • BTC – Jumped to $23,854 buoyed by signs that the US Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rate increases. Bitcoin rallied by more than 40% this month.
Today – German Q4 GDP -1.1% decline; Earnings: More than 100 S&P 500 companies, including six Dow components, are slated to report earnings in the week ahead,i.e. Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Ford, McDonald’s, Pfizer etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.48%). Declined from 92.65 high, to test S2 at 91.69. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line turn negative. RSI 37 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.208, Daily ATR 1.246.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 31st January 2023.

Market Update – January 31 -Stocks Lower; Techs Lead Drop.



Global Stocks extend lower, USD steady and Yields picked up across the curve with the short end underperforming in a bear flattener given the Fed views. The curve flattened to -72 bps before unwinding to -70 bps. The looming FOMC decision on Wednesday and expectations for a hawkish trimming in the rate path left bonds and stocks heavy with buyers sidelined. Concerns over upcoming earnings from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta also weighed. The US100 slumped -1.96%. European bonds and stocks were mostly lower too ahead of ECB and BoE rate decisions.

Elsewhere:

  • China: domestic orders and consumption and manufacturing PMI drove higher (>50). A rebound in non-manufacturing activity was more decisive than expected by economists – but helped by a seasonal surge in spending for the Lunar New Year holiday.
  • Japan Dec factory output inches down, retail sales beat forecasts
  • German retail sales down 5.3% m/m in December & December import prices -1.6% m/m, +12.6% y/y.
  • The USD Index – firmed, however, rising to 102.32 assuming the Fed reiterates a higher for longer stance.
  • EUR – drifts to 1.0827.
  • JPY – rise slightly at 20-DMA i.e. 130.4.
  • GBP – struggling to break 1.2450.
  • Stocks – US100 -1.96% at 11929, US500 off -1.30% and the US30 -0.77%. Losses were broadbased.

  • USOil – down to $77.60, below 50-day SMA as the threat of further interest rate increases and ample Russian crude flows outweighed demand recovery expectations from China. OPEC+ panel is likely to recommend keeping the oil producer group’s current output policy unchanged when it meets tomorrow.
  • Gold – at its 4th day lower, but still set for gain of 5% in January. Silver, platinum palladium are set for a monthly decline.
  • BTC – held support at $22,400.
Today – German unemployment, EU prelim GDP, US CB and NZ employment data; Earnings: AMD, Exxon, Pfizer, General Motors, Mc Donald’s, Marathon Petroleum etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.56%). Up to R2 of the day, i.e. 1.7586. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line extends higher. RSI 71 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00254, Daily ATR 0.01533.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 1st February 2023.

Market Update – February 1 – US100 Posts Best January Since 2001.



Stocks and bonds corrected higher on Tuesday as the deceleration in ECI energized short covering and boosted risk appetite. Global Stock market finished with solid. Earnings were mixed, but a lot of bad news has been digested, opening the door for bargain hunting. Treasury yields declined, led by the front end as the market senses rate hikes are coming to an end. Month-end buying also contributed. Along with ECI, the calendar included further declines in home prices, a drop in consumer confidence, and a slide in the Chicago PMI.



  • UK: UK house prices inflation slowing down & shop prices continue to rise & the mortgage rate surge through October; will add to the arguments of the hawks at the MPC, adds to signs that against the background of rising interest rates and falling disposable income the housing market is slowing fast. The question is how fast and how long the correction will be as the risk that thousands are stuck in situation with negative equity where loans exceed house values could exacerbate an already very difficult situation for the UK economy.
  • China:China Caixin manufacturing PMI signals ongoing contraction. Unlike the official PMI report, the Caixin General Manufacturing PMI remained below the 50 point no change mark and nudged only slightly higher – to 49.2 from 49.0 in December last year.
  • The USD Index – slumped to 101.991 as the market saw fading prospects of an aggressive stance from the FOMC, even though many expect Chair Powell to push back against the rallies in bonds and stocks.
  • EUR – advances slightly to 1.0879 from 1.0800.
  • JPY – steady for 6 days in a row 130.00 – 130.40. BOJ buys record $182 billion worth of bonds in January
  • GBP – drifted to 1.2300 bottom.
  • Stocks – US100 +1.67% at 12118, for a 10.68% surge on the month, US500 1.46% higher and up 6.18% for January, the best monthly gain since October. And it is the first January increase since 2019. The US30 rose 1.09% on the day for a 2.83% monthly gain. Exxon smashes Western oil majors’ profits with $56 billion in 2022. AMD revenue beats targets, Wall St relieved after Intel’s grim outlook. GM shoves aside recession fears with robust 2023 forecast. Pfizersees steep 2023 fall in COVID sales, aims to bolster pipeline.

  • USOil – rebounded from 76.50 to 79.40 yesterday. The IMF has also lifted its global growth forecast and that should likely keep demand expectations and prices underpinned.
  • Gold – closed at 1928.
  • BTC – held above 23000 into the new month.
Today – EU prelim. HCPI, US ADP employment change, US ISM Manufacturing and FED meeting and Press Conference. Earnings: Meta, Novo, Thermo Fisher, Novartis, Sony etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Coffee (+6.66%).Bounced to 182 from 169.40. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line extends higher. RSI 86 but lower , H1 ATR 1.77, Daily ATR 5.48.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 2nd February 2023.

Market Update – February 2 – A Continued Battle of Wills.



Stocks surged, Yields dove sharply, the US Dollar slumped, on Wednesday while they are holding their gains/losses so far today as well. The FOMC delivered the 25bp rate hike as expected, reaching 4.75%, an eighth straight hike. The moderation & the lack of anything new or overly hawkish from Powell’s comments and when he acknowledged progress in the fight against inflation opened the door for bulls and a healthy short covering rally, eventhough he stressed that the labor market remains “extremely tight” and that inflation remains “well above our longer-run goal.”

Markets remain convinced that a widely expected recession is likely to roil markets once again sometime this year.

The policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference reiterated that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” that rates need to be “restrictive for some time,” that it is too soon to declare victory, and that rate cuts are not in the outlook.


  • The USD Index – was the only real casualty of the markets’ dovish take, having fallen to 100.65 as the continued downshift in rate hikes over the last few FOMC decisions is increasing the chances that the tightening cycle is nearing an end, which continues to support markets.
  • EUR – finally broke the key 1.0900 extending to 1.1000.
  • JPY – drift to 128.00 from 130.50.
  • GBP – at 1.2388, up 0.10% on the day.
  • Stocks – US100 +2% at 12,528, US500 1% higher to 4,163 but the US30 steady at 34100. Shell makes record $40 billion annual profit. Meta surged nearly 19% in after-hours trade as it announced with lower costs, big buyback, upbeat sales. Deutsche Bank’sfourth-quarter profit surged, exceeding expectations and contributing to a third consecutive year of profit.

  • USOil – we have seen a short- leave rise 77.40 after rebounded from 76.00 bottom, after US government data showed big builds in crude and oil products inventory. OPEC+ agreed to cut its production target by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), about 2% of world demand, from November last year until the end of 2023 to support the market.
  • Gold – skyrocketed to 1959.
  • BTC – advanced to 24254.
Today – ECB seen raising rates by 50 basis points & BoE set to lift rates to 14-year high, might hint at next moves. Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Eli Lilly, Roche Holdings, Shell, Qualcomm etc.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGUSD (+2.59%). Bounced to R1 at 24.27. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal remain well above 0, RSI 63 but flat suggesting , H1 ATR 1.77, Daily ATR 5.48.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 8th February 2023.

Market Update – February 8 – Markets Mixed Following Powell.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chair Powell’s comments – cancelled each other out – talked more “disinflation” with “significant declines in inflation.” in 2023 but the surprise 517k NFP he could not explain – adding to the 5-5.25% range argument. Fed Fund futures are now pricing the terminal rate at 5.15% in July. (up from 4.9% ahead of NFP). So “As we were.” USD slipped and then reversed, Stocks (NASDAQ +1.90%) & Yields (US10yr 3.6745) closed higher. Biden’s SOU speech has high ambitions but has little chance of success with a divided Congress.

  • The USD Index continued to rally from 8-mth lows last week at 100.65. Third day higher touched 103.80 before reversing under 103.00 and is back to 103.20 currently.
  • EUR – sank to new 21-day lows at 1.0675 yesterday, rallied to 1.0760 and back to 1.0735 now.
  • JPY – Declined over 1.3% yesterday to 130.40 lows, over 131.00 now at 131.20.
  • GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.2080 then weakened again to breach the psychological 1.2000 yesterday to touch 23-day lows at 1.1960. The pair is back to 1.2050 now.
  • Stocks – The US markets rallied on the disinflation side of the story (0.78% to 1.90%) US500 1.29%, (52.94) 4164, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS trade at next key resistance 4175. MSFT +4.2%, GOOG +4.42% & Bidu +12.18%. All rallied on AI news, Oil majors rallied on back of BP Earnings. ATVI +5.62% on back of MSFT, their own Earnings and takeover rumours.


  • USOil – Futures rallied again to trade at $77.55 today from $72.20 lows on Monday.
  • Gold – Advanced from $1865 lows yesterday to $1880 resistance now.
  • BTC – Tested $22.7k lows yesterday, before lifting over $23k, to 23.2k now.
Today – BoC Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Cook, Barr, Bostic, Kashkari & Waller, ECB’s Knot & Elderson, Earnings from ABN AMRO, Credit Agricole, Equinor, Societe Generale, (Beat) AP Moeller-Maersk, CVS, Disney and Uber.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.20%). Sank from a test of 91.95 yesterday to 90.70, before rallying again to 91.50 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising & testing 0 line. RSI 55.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.190, Daily ATR 1.105.



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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

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