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Дата: 23 Дек 2009 23:07:14
Тема: www.finance-aig.com
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Euro Maintains Narrow Range, British Pound Remains Weighed Following BoE Minutes
The Euro was little changed overnight and continued to hold above the 200-Day SMA at 1.4197 however, the slew of data scheduled for the North American trade could move the currency market as investors weigh the outlook for future growth. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has begun to ask commercial banks to disclose the quality of the collateral that were used in exchange for the emergency funds, and set the deadline.
At the same time, German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter held a dovish outlook for future policy and expects the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to begin normalizing policy when economic activity "runs on its own without fiscal priming" as they aim to encourage a sustainable recovery. Nevertheless, the economic docket showed import price in Germany increased 0.4% in November to top forecasts for a 0.3%, while the annualized rate slipped 5.0% during the month after contracting 8.1% in October. As price pressures remain subdued, the ECB is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record-low of 1.00% in January, and the Governing Council may hold a dovish outlook for future policy throughout the first-half of 2010 as the central bank continues to see a risk for a protracted recovery.
The British Pound weakened for the third day, with the RSI slipping into oversold territory, but held within Tuesday's range as the overnight decline stalled at a low of 1.5923. Meanwhile, the Bank of England Minutes showed the MPC voted unanimously to hold the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and maintain its GBP 200B asset purchase program as policy makers see the economy emerging from the worst recession since the post-war period. The central bank said that "most members felt that there had been some positive developments for the near term, albeit relatively minor ones by comparison to the uncertainties," but went onto say that "a slightly different scale of asset purchases could still be justified" as policy makers continue to see a risk for a protracted recovery. Moreover, the BoE said that money supply growth has been "disappointing" given the extraordinary efforts taken on by the government, and concluded that "financial market volatility surrounding events in Dubai and the rating agency downgrade of Greek sovereign debt had provided a reminder of the potential for shocks to affect the United Kingdom." At the same time, a separate report showed service-based activity in the U.K. weakened 0.2% during the three-months through October, while the British Bankers Association said loans for home purchases rose to an annualized pace of 44,713 in November, which is the highest reading since October 2007.
The U.S. dollar was mixed overnight, with the USD/JPY tipping lower for the first time in six trading days, and the reserve currency is likely to face increased volatility going into the North American session as the economic docket is anticipated to reinforce an improved outlook for future growth. Personal spending in the world's largest economy is forecasted to expand 0.7% for the second consecutive month in November, while personal incomes are anticipated to grow 0.5% for the same period after rising 0.2% in October. In addition, the U. of Michigan confidence survey is projected to increase to 73.8 in December from an initial forecast of 73.4, which would be the highest reading since January 2008, while new home sales are expected to increase 1.7% in November after surging 6.2% in the previous month.
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