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Date: 20th August 2026.
Historic US Intervention Sees Gold Spike More Than 4%.
A historic day for the US and for global banking and finance. The US Dollar fell to its lowest point since the first half of May 2026 and Gold saw its largest increase in two months. The US Treasury, for the first time in decades, intervened in the bond market to purposely lower yields. In addition to this, Trump told journalists that the economic plan for Iran is starting soon.
The US Treasury is a regular buyer of US bonds, but not in the same way as the Fed and not to influence the market. The Treasury would normally purchase bonds in order to manage its debt maturity profile. However, the Treasury is seen as attempting to apply unconventional pressure to lower yields and reduce mortgage interest rates. This puts the government at odds with the Federal Reserve again.
HFM - US Dollar 4-Hour Chart
Experts advise that this will include targeting not only Iranian entities but also foreign banks, shipping companies, and countries that help Iran bypass sanctions. As a result, crude oil prices remain above $85 per barrel for a third day.
The Treasury announced that it would double certain long-term Treasury bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move is specifically targeting bonds with maturities between 10 and 30 years. This came after the 30-year yield surged above 5.3%, its highest level since 2007.
This indicates to markets that high bond yields are worrying US economists and that the government fears yields may become ‘out of control’. A higher fiscal deficit and higher yields can trigger a global recession if the trend continues. As a result, investors sold the Dollar and opted for Gold. The move suggests traders are seeking alternative safe-haven assets to reduce exposure.
Simultaneously, investors are worried that Japan will have to sell US Treasury bonds in order to fund further currency interventions. This could further increase US bond yields and create a recurring issue for the US. Higher bond yields would normally support the US Dollar. However, if yields reach levels that trigger fear over fiscal stability, investors tend to turn to alternatives.
However, with the Treasury's historic move, investors are less concerned about inflation and more concerned about fiscal policy and government debt levels. As a result, the correlation has returned, with the US Dollar declining and Gold rising.
The US Dollar continues to be one of the worst-performing currencies of the day, which is positive for Gold. In addition to this, Silver is also increasing during this morning's Asian session, indicating that demand is across multiple metals, not only Gold. If Gold prices decline below $4,471.80, buy signals will significantly weaken in the short to medium term. Remaining above this price will continue to indicate that buyers are controlling the price action.
HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart
Possible targets for Gold in the short term remain the psychological price and resistance levels between $4,500 and $4,529.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyze the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Historic US Intervention Sees Gold Spike More Than 4%.
A historic day for the US and for global banking and finance. The US Dollar fell to its lowest point since the first half of May 2026 and Gold saw its largest increase in two months. The US Treasury, for the first time in decades, intervened in the bond market to purposely lower yields. In addition to this, Trump told journalists that the economic plan for Iran is starting soon.
The US Treasury is a regular buyer of US bonds, but not in the same way as the Fed and not to influence the market. The Treasury would normally purchase bonds in order to manage its debt maturity profile. However, the Treasury is seen as attempting to apply unconventional pressure to lower yields and reduce mortgage interest rates. This puts the government at odds with the Federal Reserve again.
HFM - US Dollar 4-Hour Chart
Trump Economic Plan Keeps Oil Above $85
Trump has announced a new ‘economic warfare’ campaign against Iran, describing it as an ‘economic D-Day’ aimed at further isolating Tehran and forcing it to accept US demands. The plan will include sanctions, financial restrictions, and pressure on Iran’s oil trade.Experts advise that this will include targeting not only Iranian entities but also foreign banks, shipping companies, and countries that help Iran bypass sanctions. As a result, crude oil prices remain above $85 per barrel for a third day.
US Treasury vs The Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve traditionally oversees the condition of interest rates, bond yields, and economic stability. What investors do not want to see from the US Treasury is unpredictability, yet this is what they saw. This is the first time in US history that the US government has deliberately bought long-term bonds to calm a surge in yields.The Treasury announced that it would double certain long-term Treasury bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move is specifically targeting bonds with maturities between 10 and 30 years. This came after the 30-year yield surged above 5.3%, its highest level since 2007.
This indicates to markets that high bond yields are worrying US economists and that the government fears yields may become ‘out of control’. A higher fiscal deficit and higher yields can trigger a global recession if the trend continues. As a result, investors sold the Dollar and opted for Gold. The move suggests traders are seeking alternative safe-haven assets to reduce exposure.
Simultaneously, investors are worried that Japan will have to sell US Treasury bonds in order to fund further currency interventions. This could further increase US bond yields and create a recurring issue for the US. Higher bond yields would normally support the US Dollar. However, if yields reach levels that trigger fear over fiscal stability, investors tend to turn to alternatives.
Key Correlation Returns
Wednesday saw the traditional correlation between the US Dollar and Gold return after both fell on Tuesday. This was because investors were simultaneously concerned about rising inflation, bond yields, and the lack of Federal Reserve reaction. More information on this can be found here .However, with the Treasury's historic move, investors are less concerned about inflation and more concerned about fiscal policy and government debt levels. As a result, the correlation has returned, with the US Dollar declining and Gold rising.
Gold - Technique Analysis
Gold's technical picture turned sharply bullish yesterday, with XAU/USD rising more than 4% and breaking decisively through the $4,455–$4,555 resistance zone. The move created a strong bullish daily candle and confirmed a breakout from the recent consolidation. The price also pushed above the 200-day moving average, and most momentum-based indications are pointing to upward price movement.The US Dollar continues to be one of the worst-performing currencies of the day, which is positive for Gold. In addition to this, Silver is also increasing during this morning's Asian session, indicating that demand is across multiple metals, not only Gold. If Gold prices decline below $4,471.80, buy signals will significantly weaken in the short to medium term. Remaining above this price will continue to indicate that buyers are controlling the price action.
HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart
Possible targets for Gold in the short term remain the psychological price and resistance levels between $4,500 and $4,529.
Key Takeaways:
- The US Treasury's intervention in long-term bonds marks a major shift in government involvement in financial markets.
- The US Dollar has fallen sharply as concerns increase over fiscal stability and government debt.
- Gold gained more than 4%, breaking key resistance levels and strengthening its bullish technical outlook.
- Oil remains above $85 as the US prepares a new economic pressure campaign against Iran.
- Markets are increasingly focused on rising bond yields, fiscal risks, and growing tension between Treasury policy and the Federal Reserve.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyze the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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