HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services. - Страница 43

[HFblogNews]

Date: 16th April 2026.

EURGBP Outlook: Orbán Exit vs Hormuz Crisis - What’s Next for the Euro?

The European currency market is currently at a crucial crossroads. On the one hand, a political wind is blowing from Budapest, but on the other, the shadow of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is creating a thick fog of uncertainty for the European Central Bank (ECB).

Wednesday, April 15, 2026, saw a slight but significant movement in the EURGBP pair, which settled at 0.8699. This figure is not just a statistic; it reflects the struggle between political optimism and industrial fragility.

The ECB's Full Options and the Influence of the Strait of Hormuz​

ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel gave a clear signal that the policy decision next April will not be rushed. With Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% (the highest level since early 2025), the ECB has chosen to maintain ‘full optionality.’

Why is the Strait of Hormuz s crucial?

• Energy Shock: This disruption to global oil distribution routes directly increases energy costs, stifling the manufacturing sector.
• Price Mandate: ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that monetary policy will remain restrictive. There is no promise of a rate cut as long as inflation expectations are not "tame" at 2%.

The Post-Orbán Dominance Effect​

Positive sentiment stems from the changing political landscape in Hungary. The end of Viktor Orbán's 16-year term in office is seen by markets as a step towards stronger EU integration.

This relief rally has given the euro additional strength. Markets are starting to price in lower fragmentation risks, making the euro appear more resilient compared to the pound sterling, which is still weighed down by the UK's slow domestic economic recovery.

Industrial Fragility vs. UK GDP Expectations​

Despite the Euro's political strength, Germany's economic engine remains stuttering. A 0.3% decline in industrial production in February demonstrates that Europe's core sectors are still struggling with stagnation.

Across the Channel, the UK faces its own dilemma. Although February GDP is expected to grow slightly by 0.1%, price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict remain a long-term threat to British purchasing power.

EURGBP Technical Analysis​

Technically, EURGBP on the daily timeframe is in a prolonged consolidation phase, stuck within a price range between 0.8600 as strong support and 0.8864 as key resistance. Currently, the price is showing rejection after attempting to break through the supply zone around 0.8741, with the moving average indicator trending flat. This confirms the loss of dominant trend momentum, supported by the Awesome Oscillator moving down to the zero line, signaling market indecision in determining the next direction.

As a precautionary measure, the primary focus is on the 0.8700 to 0.8750 area as a short-term direction indicator. If the price fails to stay above the moving average (50-day moving average) and breaks below 0.8684 , the next downside target will be to retest the lower boundary of the corridor at 0.8636 . Conversely, a solid break above the psychological level of 0.8750 is needed to open up the opportunity for further gains towards 0.8788 , while keeping an eye on the release of Bank of England monetary policy data, which will be a catalyst for volatility in the pound.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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[HFblogNews]

Date: 20th April 2026.

Oil Prices Surge After the Strait of Hormuz Closure | Markets Brace for Volatility.

Oil Prices Surge as the Strait of Hormuz Closes Again, Boosting Market Volatility​

Global financial markets opened the week under pressure as oil prices surged following renewed tensions in the Middle East. The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil routes, has reintroduced volatility across commodities, currencies, and equities.

The development comes at a sensitive time, with investors also focusing on a heavy week of US corporate earnings, creating a complex market environment driven by both geopolitics and fundamentals.

Oil Prices Jump on Supply Fears​

Crude oil markets reacted sharply to the escalating situation. US crude rose over 5% to around $87 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed above $95 after gaining as much as 7.9% earlier in the session.

The rally followed Iran’s decision to reverse its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, citing tensions linked to a US naval presence. The move has raised concerns about disruptions to global supply, as the route handles nearly 20% of global oil and LNG flows.

Donald Trump confirmed that a US Navy blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and announced the seizure of an Iranian-linked vessel. The escalation has heightened fears of further conflict between the United States and Iran.

Sector Impact: Energy Gains, Transport Under Pressure​

Rising oil prices are already driving divergence across sectors.

Energy stocks are benefiting from higher crude prices, while industries sensitive to fuel costs, such as airlines and transport, are facing pressure. Consumer-related sectors may also be affected if higher energy costs translate into increased inflation.

This rotation reinforces the idea that markets are becoming more sector-driven rather than broadly directional.

Stock Markets Show Resilience Despite Rising Risk​

Despite the sharp rise in oil prices, global equity markets have remained relatively stable. Asian markets moved higher, with gains in Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s Kospi, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index.

This suggests investors are not fully pricing in a worst-case scenario. Instead, markets appear to be reacting cautiously to headlines while maintaining a degree of optimism.

However, US stock futures edged lower, with the S&P 500 pulling back after recently hitting record highs. The shift reflects growing sensitivity to rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.

Earnings Season Offsets Geopolitical Pressure​

One key reason equities are holding up is the ongoing US earnings season, which is expected to be a major market driver this week.

Strong corporate results and forward guidance are helping to support investor sentiment, even as macro risks increase. This is creating a more selective market environment, where individual stocks and sectors are moving more than the broader indices.

Dollar Strength Signals Caution​

In currency markets, the US Dollar strengthened, particularly against the Japanese yen, signalling a mild shift towards risk-off sentiment.

A stronger dollar is significant because it can:

• pressure commodities priced in USD
• weigh on emerging markets
• limit gains in gold and cryptocurrencies

Gold prices, notably, declined slightly despite geopolitical tensions, highlighting how currency movements are currently shaping market behaviour.

Market Outlook: Oil and Geopolitics in Focus​

Looking ahead, the direction of markets will largely depend on developments in the Middle East and whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

If tensions escalate further, oil prices could continue to rise, increasing inflation risks and weighing on global growth. On the other hand, any progress in US-Iran negotiations could quickly stabilise energy markets and support risk assets.

For now, investors are navigating a market shaped by headline-driven volatility, where oil prices, geopolitical developments, and earnings results are all playing a critical role.

Key Takeaway for Traders​

The current market environment is being driven by a combination of rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and earnings season momentum.

Oil remains the primary driver of sentiment, with the US Dollar acting as a confirmation signal, while equities are increasingly influenced by company-specific results.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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[HFblogNews]

Date: 21st April 2026.

S&P 500 Surge: What Could Break or Make the Rally Next?

The S&P 500 continues to finish higher, driven by growing investor confidence that the US–Iran conflict will not intensify. In the span of just three weeks, the index has reversed a 10% stock market crash and climbed back to record highs. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at +3.65% for 2026. The question now is whether three major upcoming events can keep that momentum intact.

Kevin Warsh Hearing​

Kevin Warsh is the US President’s nominee to take over the Federal Reserve Chairmanship. However, in order for Mr Warsh to be appointed, he must first be approved by the Senate. The Senate hearing will take place this afternoon, where Mr Warsh will likely be questioned on the Fed’s independence, interest rates, and the current investigation into the building renovation of the Federal Reserve. Questions may also include his wealth, which amounts to almost $200 million.

So far, Mr Warsh has already made it clear in the past few days that he believes the Federal Reserve must remain fully independent. Even though this was not the primary driver, it has supported stocks in the past few days.

Investors will largely be focusing on Kevin Warsh’s view on interest rates. In the past, the individual has been known to be an inflation hawk and opposed to quantitative easing. If investors feel he would bring a hawkish view to the Fed, stocks may come under pressure. Whereas, if the individual seems to follow the President’s hawkish stance, stocks potentially will rise.

Meanwhile, US Fed Board member Christopher Waller stated that a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict would allow officials to move towards interest rate cuts at the end of the year. However, otherwise, high inflation could become entrenched across a wide range of goods and services, and real economic activity and employment could begin to decline.

According to the Chicago exchange, under the current conditions, an interest rate cut is not likely until March 2027.

Earnings Season​

Earnings season is likely to impact the S&P 500 more than the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones. Currently, investors seem to be pricing in positive results from the upcoming earnings data. If the companies provide positive earnings per share, revenue, and remain optimistic about demand, the stock is likely to obtain further support. This week, investors will be mainly focusing on the following reports:

• Tesla, the 8th most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening.
• Lam Research, the 31st most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening.
• Philip Morris, the 42nd most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow before the market opens.
• IBM, the 43rd most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening.
• Intel, the 30th most influential company in the index, reports Thursday evening.
• American Express, the 47th most influential company in the index, reports Thursday before the market opens.
• Procter & Gamble, the 29th most influential company in the index, reports Friday.

JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,600, driven by strong AI-led earnings growth, while warning that geopolitical risks could still cause short-term volatility.

HFM - S&P 500 Daily Chart

US-Iran Deadline​

Investors remain focused on the Middle East. Late last week, reports said Tehran may halt its nuclear programme. It could also transfer enriched uranium to third countries. In return, it seeks access to frozen assets and security guarantees.

On Friday, Iran allowed partial ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This boosted market optimism and supported alternatives to the Dollar. However, the US refused to unblock Iranian ports and seized a container ship. Iran then cancelled new talks scheduled today in Islamabad.

Yesterday, Donald Trump warned Iran again to accept US peace terms. He said its transport and energy infrastructure could be destroyed if it refuses. Experts now see rising risks of renewed hostilities. A closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also possible. This could push hydrocarbon prices higher.

So far, investors are not showing clear risk-off sentiment. Some speculate Iran may still attend negotiations. Trump told journalists he is unlikely to extend the deadline. He said Iran must show real signs of accepting US terms. If tensions ease and oil stays below key levels, the S&P 500 may remain above $7,000.

Key Takeaways:​

• S&P 500 momentum remains strong, rebounding from a 10% drop to record highs in just three weeks.
• Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing is a key risk, with his stance on interest rates likely to influence market direction.
• Earnings season is critical, with major companies reporting and positive results already priced into the market.
• Geopolitical tensions remain a wildcard, as US–Iran developments could impact oil prices and overall sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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[HFblogNews]

Date: 22nd April 2026.

Middle East De-escalation Pressures the Dollar Despite Warsh Hearing.

The US Dollar is seeing notable price swings and heightened volatility. Investors are closely watching Kevin Warsh’s hearing, while also reacting to fresh developments in the Middle East. Yesterday, the Dollar was the best performing currency largely due to Warsh reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s independence and tackling inflation.

However, the currency is correcting back downwards this morning as the market prices in de-escalation within the Middle East. The best-performing currencies during this morning’s Asian session are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. This is due to their recent high inflation reports, which are most likely going to prompt a hawkish monetary policy.

Kevin Warsh Hearing Supporting the US Dollar?​

Meanwhile, US investors are assessing the Senate Banking Committee hearing of Kevin Warsh, a candidate for Chair of the US Federal Reserve. Known for supporting balance sheet reduction, Warsh is seen by analysts as someone who could reduce market liquidity, lift government bond yields, and strengthen the US Dollar. Bond yields rose on Tuesday, which is positive for the Dollar, but are retracing this morning so far.

His remarks echoed themes from earlier this week, including a ‘regime change’ in monetary policy and a new inflation framework. Markets saw this as a possible signal of tighter conditions. A day earlier, Donald Trump told CNBC he would be disappointed if Warsh did not cut borrowing costs immediately. That would follow Senate confirmation.

However, Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said that would be the wrong move. He wants more clarity on a possible end to the Iran conflict. He warned a prolonged escalation could hurt household budgets and fuel inflation.

Most economists say policy will likely remain uncertain until Kevin Warsh holds his first press conference as Fed Chair. Currently, some senators are delaying approval until the government drops charges against current Chair Jerome Powell over the building refurbishments.

While some of the factors above are supportive for the US Dollar, easing tensions in the Middle East are weighing on the currency. This is because lower geopolitical risk tends to reduce demand for safe-haven assets.

GBPUSD - The Pound Continues to Perform Despite Economic & Political Risks​

The price of the GBPUSD is moving in favour of the British Pound despite political and economic risks to the UK. The exchange rate has dipped in the past few days but continues to show little bearish strength and momentum. As a result, the GBPUSD continues to maintain a bullish bias with many indicators. However, if the US Dollar Index gains momentum, the exchange rate may again fall, similar to February and March.

HFM - GBPUSD 1-Hour Chart

UK macroeconomic expectations have worsened this year amid rising geopolitical risks and weaker business activity. Analysts at Ernst & Young and Deloitte point to the prolonged US–Iran conflict as a key factor, as it is disrupting global supply chains and pushing energy costs higher. EY expects the UK economy to stagnate in the second and third quarters, with annual growth slowing from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.7% this year.

Analysts expect the labour market to weaken, with unemployment projected to reach 5.8% by mid-2027, implying around 250,000 job losses. Inflation may approach 4.0% in the second half of the year, well above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target.

This morning, the UK’s inflation rate was confirmed to have risen from 3.0% to 3.3% as expected. Investors will now turn their attention to the UK’s Services and Manufacturing PMI reports tomorrow morning.

New Zealand Dollar - Can the NZD Break Above the 0.59215 Resistance Level?​

The main factor supporting NZD/USD was stronger Q1 inflation data. Headline CPI rose from 0.6% to 0.9% (QoQ), above the 0.8% forecast.

The details were more concerning, with non-tradable inflation, a key measure of domestic price pressure, rising 1.1% versus the RBNZ’s 0.9% estimate, and reaching 3.5% annually. Tradable inflation was lower at 0.7% quarterly and 2.5% yearly. These figures also do not yet fully reflect the impact of disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz supply risks. As a result, investors have raised expectations for tighter monetary policy, with a rate hike now priced in by July and up to three 25-basis-point increases expected by year-end.

HFM - NZDUSD 1-Hour Chart

The New Zealand Dollar is one of the best-performing currencies of April and is trading above key Moving Averages. However, the resistance level at 0.59215 is a real concern for technical analysts. The asset has fallen at this resistance level on five occasions over the past week alone.

Key Takeaways:

• Warsh’s hearing initially supported the US Dollar, but easing Middle East tensions are now pressuring it lower.
• Markets view Warsh’s stance on Fed independence, inflation, and balance sheet reduction as supportive of the Dollar.
• GBP/USD is still holding a bullish tone. This is despite weakening UK growth expectations, rising inflation, and concerns over the labour market.
• The New Zealand Dollar is gaining support from inflation. Stronger CPI data has boosted expectations of RBNZ rate hikes, though 0.59215 remains a key resistance level for NZD/USD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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